Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Games in the Gulf

So, nearly halfway through Blairs '48 hours' and what have we got? Nothing. We are into day 13 of this crisis and the best we have come up with is that the government are happy to have made contact. Made contact?! What the hell have we been doing for 12 days?

I must admit, i may have been a bit harsh on Captain Air earlier. It is hard to know what kind of duress they are under and the Iranians will be piling on the psyops. The latest photo
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of Captain Air and the others, shows Lieutenant Carman and him next to each other clearly looking unhappy. Hopefully these two officers are at least dicussing the situation, and what to do about it. Their primary responsibility is to keep the group safe and hopefully they are fully aware of the games the Iranians are playing. The photo gave me heart that perhaps all is not lost.

Also interesting is the fact that none of the captives are wearing shoes. I think that this is probably a measure to make it harder to escape, coupled with LS turneys lack of headscarf, she wouldn't be able to blend in, and the lovely tracksuits.

The Iranians are playing their hand very well and it would seem that ours is being played by people who don't know the rules. Whilst many people are decrying comments made by people safe at home behind their keyboards, i think this is wrong. This whole game is being played out for the benefit of the 'viewing public', how this looks is precisely wha this is about and so the 'behind the scenes' diplomacy is affectively irrelevent.

All this talk of finding a 'face saving' way out for Iran is ludicrous, we should be looking at forcing them into a humiliating climbdown because that's exactly what they are trying to do to us.

The Iranians are playing a weak hold'em hand and are hoping that if we raise the stakes they can do a face saving fold. They however are finding that we are quite happy calling with our strong hand and if we aren't careful they'll hit a good hand on the river. We also have to take into account that we are being urged to fold our good hand by our 'friends'.

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